Introduction: hurricane risk

Issue warnings and warnings
A tropical warning is in effect for
parts of the Yucatan Peninsula,
the Greater Antilles and Florida.

This means tropical storm
conditions are expected in
these areas over the next 36
to 48 hours and hurricane conditions are possible.

where is it now

There is a strong tropical storm
in the western Caribbean Sea.
Showers and thunderstorms

are gradually occurring in the region.
The storm was classified Monday
morning as Potential Tropical

Storm Nine, a method by which
the NHC issues watches and
warnings before a hurricane
or tropical storm develops.

Here is the chart:

Tuesday: The hurricane is
expected to strengthen to a
Category 1 tropical storm or

Hurricane Helen near Cancun,
Cozumel and western Cuba.
Heavy rains, strong winds and flash

floods are expected in these areas.
Parts of western Cuba
received 1 foot (30 cm) or more of rain.

Wednesday: Helen may have long-term effects in Cancun, Cozumel and western Cuba, especially early. We expect Helen to enter the southern Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane. Some heavy surf and rain could hit parts of Florida’s Gulf Coast from the Keys to the Panhandle.

Thursday: Although there is some uncertainty in the forecast, Helen is expected to make landfall as a severe storm on Thursday afternoon or evening.

Computer forecast models show that the most likely landfall will occur somewhere from the Great Bend of Florida to the Panhandle, but the storm’s impacts (high waves, wind and rain) will be far from the center.

There are still some computer ensemble model forecasts with a track extending as far east as the west coast of Florida and as far south as southeast Louisiana or Mississippi. Therefore, people in the northern Gulf, from Louisiana to Florida, should continue to monitor this forecast for possible changes.

Friday: This system is likely to move quickly inland, bringing persistent strong winds and locally flooding rainfall to parts of the Southeast.